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An actuarial balance sheet of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme

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  • Christoph Metzger

Abstract

Following the recent update of the international System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), internationally comparable estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) of unfunded social security pension schemes will soon be available in the supplementary table to the National Accounts. Against this background, this article analyzes the medium‐term sustainability of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme (Alters‐ und Hinterlassenenversicherung – AHV). This is achieved by estimating a “Swedish” actuarial balance sheet, which compares pension liabilities with the explicit and implicit assets of the pension scheme. Our results show that the current financing of the AHV is unsustainable, with about 30 per cent of the liabilities not backed by corresponding assets. In order to close this financing gap either the contribution rate should rise from 8.4 per cent to 12 per cent or all pension liabilities should be cut by about 38 per cent. Après la récente mise à jour des normes internationales établies par le Système de comptabilité nationale (SCN 2008), le tableau supplémentaire produit dans le cadre des comptes nationaux suisses présentera prochainement des estimations, comparables sur le plan international, du montant cumulé des engagements des régimes de retraite de la sécurité sociale financés par répartition. Dans le prolongement de cette évolution comptable, cet article analyse la viabilité à moyen terme du régime suisse de pensions de vieillesse (Alters‐ und Hinterlassenenversicherung – AHV). Pour ce faire, l’auteur dresse un bilan actuariel estimatif, inspiré du modèle suédois, qui compare les engagements et les actifs implicites et explicites du régime de pensions. Les résultats de cette estimation montrent que le mode de financement actuel de l’AHV n’est pas viable, étant donné qu’environ 30 pour cent de ses engagements ne sont pas garantis par des actifs d’une valeur correspondante. Pour combler ce déficit de financement, il faudrait soit relever le taux de cotisation de 8,4 à 12 pour cent, soit réduire d’environ 38 pour cent l’ensemble des engagements du régime au titre des retraites.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Metzger, 2018. "An actuarial balance sheet of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 25-49, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:intssr:v:71:y:2018:i:1:p:25-49
    DOI: 10.1111/issr.12160
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    Cited by:

    1. Anne M. Garvey & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2019. "Does the pension system’s income statement really matter? A proposal for an NDC scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González, 2018. "Social Insurance Accounting for a Notional Defined Contribution Scheme Combining Retirement and Long-Term Care Benefits," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(8), pages 1-36, August.
    3. Stefan Fetzer & Stefan Moog, 2021. "Indicators for Measuring Intergenerational Fairness of Social Security Systems—The Case of the German Social Health Insurance," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González, 2018. "Actuarial accounting for a notional defined contribution scheme combining retirement and longterm care benefits," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-16, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    5. Min Le & Xinrong Xiao & Dragan Pamučar & Qianling Liang, 2021. "A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Anne M. Garvey & Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2021. "From “Table 29” to the actuarial balance sheet: is it really that big a leap?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2021-05, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

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