Probabilistic Assessment of Carbon Intensity in Selected Oil and Gas Fields in Ghana

Direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from oil and gas production and processing are among the highest contributors to global emissions. Despite commitments to decarbonization by key industry players, the carbon intensity (CI) of Ghana's oil and gas sector is still not well understood. In this study, a probabilistic modelling approach based on Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate and analyse GHG emissions and CI of the industry's three producing fields. Cumulatively, the oil and gas sector has contributed between 16.53 MtCO2e (P10) and 177.24 MtCO2e (P90) to Ghana's GHG emissions since inception, with a P50 estimate of 92.43 MtCO2e. Of the total cumulative emissions, the Jubilee Field, which began production in 2010, accounts for about 51%. Industry emissions have increased consistently over the years, becoming the country's highest contributor since 2018. The study further revealed that the average industry CI ranges from 43.19 kgCO2e/boe (P10) to 288.32 kgCO2e/boe (P90), with a P50 estimate of about 152.12 kgCO2e/boe, which is comparatively high when benchmarked against major global oil‐producing countries. Among the three producing fields, the Tweneboa, Enyenra and Ntomme (TEN) field exhibited the highest CI, with a P50 estimate of about 210.28 kgCO2e/boe. In contrast, the Jubilee field, despite contributing the highest cumulative emissions, recorded the lowest CI with a P50 estimate of about 91.95 kgCO2e/boe, attributed to its consistently high oil production. A business‐as‐usual projection indicates that the industry's emissions could rise by approximately 48%, with CI increasing by about 31% by 2030. This study provides valuable insights into the carbon footprint of the Ghanaian oil and gas industry and establishes a crucial benchmark for comparison and tracking improvements.