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Corporate Foresight and Innovation: The Mediating Role of Innovation Culture and the Moderating Effect of Environmental Uncertainty

Author

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  • Carla Linares‐Barbero
  • Ivan De La Vega

Abstract

To adapt to a swiftly evolving and unpredictable world, business leaders have strengthened their strategic planning approaches by incorporating corporate foresight to support innovation. However, questions remain regarding how effectively organizations utilize foresight to enhance product innovativeness. Further research is needed to explore this relationship. This manuscript seeks to fill this gap by answering the following research question: How does corporate foresight relate to new product portfolio innovativeness (NPI)? To address this question, this study formulates a model that connects corporate foresight to NPI. It also examines the mediating role of innovation culture and the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty, operationalized as perceived long‐horizon state uncertainty (EU), as these interacting factors provide further insights into this relationship. This empirical investigation employs a cross‐sectional quantitative, explanatory and predictive approach with a non‐experimental design. The hypotheses are evaluated through a survey of 113 companies in Colombia's food and beverage sector. The field results are analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS‐SEM). The results indicate a significant and positive association between corporate foresight and NPI, with innovation culture serving as a complementary but modest mediator. Moreover, corporate foresight is strongly and positively associated with innovation culture. However, no evidence was found for a moderating effect of EU. This study provides empirical evidence from a field setting that foresight‐driven capabilities, such as environmental scanning and strategic selection, are associated not only with NPI but also with an organizational culture that is willing to innovate. The paper concludes by proposing future research directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carla Linares‐Barbero & Ivan De La Vega, 2026. "Corporate Foresight and Innovation: The Mediating Role of Innovation Culture and the Moderating Effect of Environmental Uncertainty," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:8:y:2026:i:1:n:e70040
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70040
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