IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v7y2025i1ne201.html

Using Horizon Scanning to Build Policy Resilience: Case of Waste Crime

Author

Listed:
  • Kenisha Garnett
  • Alister Wilson
  • Edith Wilkinson

Abstract

Waste crime is a pressing concern for the waste and resource industry as it is undermining investment, growth and jobs within the industry and threatening the natural environment. However, there is little knowledge of the scale of the problem, the types of criminality and motivations involved, and the precise nature of crime. Environmental regulators are building foresight capabilities to better understand the effect of current and future changes in markets, in technology and in the legislative environment on waste crime and associated behaviours. At the heart of this paper is the question: how can horizon scanning be adopted by environmental regulators to shape decision processes and build resilience to waste crime? We report our efforts to build a toolkit and guidance for conducting horizon scanning, aimed at supporting environmental regulators, investigators and intelligence analysts to build an understanding of—and interpretation of the consequences of—behavioural, market, technological and pollution trends in the waste sector. A review of the academic and grey literature provided insights to organisational approaches and design principles for public sector horizon scanning. Outputs guided discussion at a stakeholder workshop with waste regulators, criminal intelligence and industry professionals to explore institutional challenges and to agree broad design principles for a horizon scanning process. The toolkit supports environmental regulators in applying horizon scanning to policy and wider operational and delivery‐focused challenges; learning how to: (1) spot weak signals and emerging trends quickly, (2) examine the evidence around potential threats and opportunities for the future, and (3) take action on strategically important issues to minimise the impact of crime on the environment, society and business. The paper sets out further research needed to integrate horizon scanning with data analytics (e.g., predictive and hotspot analyses) to challenge assumptions about the patterns of change, based largely on historical trends, and to better manage these so there is greater adaptability to current and future trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenisha Garnett & Alister Wilson & Edith Wilkinson, 2025. "Using Horizon Scanning to Build Policy Resilience: Case of Waste Crime," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:7:y:2025:i:1:n:e201
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.201
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.201?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Almer & Timo Goeschl, 2015. "The Sopranos Redux: The Empirical Economics of Waste Crime," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1908-1921, November.
    2. Frank Schiller & George Prpich, 2014. "Learning to organise risk management in organisations: what future for enterprise risk management?," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 999-1017, September.
    3. Karavezyris, Vassilios & Timpe, Klaus-Peter & Marzi, Ruth, 2002. "Application of system dynamics and fuzzy logic to forecasting of municipal solid waste," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 149-158.
    4. D'Amato, Alessio & Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Nicolli, Francesco & Zoli, Mariangela, 2018. "Illegal waste disposal: Enforcement actions and decentralized environmental policy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 56-65.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tuomas Mauno & Päivi Pelli & David N. Bengston & Jouni Pykäläinen & Teppo Hujala, 2025. "Interactive Horizon Scanning of the Forest Bioeconomy With a Nested Business Environment Framework," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Canepa, Alessandra & Drogo, Federico, 2021. "Wildfire crime, apprehension and social vulnerability in Italy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Baraldi, Anna Laura & Cantabene, Claudia & De Iudicibus, Alessandro, 2024. "Fighting crime to improve recycling: Evaluating an anti-mafia policy on source separation of waste," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Idiano D’Adamo & Cinzia Daraio & Simone Di Leo & Léopold Simar, 2024. "A Flexible and Sustainable Analysis of Waste Efficiency at the European Level," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 25(4), pages 881-894, December.
    4. Degli Antoni, Giacomo & Vittucci Marzetti, Giuseppe, 2019. "Recycling and Waste Generation: An Estimate of the Source Reduction Effect of Recycling Programs," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 321-329.
    5. Jiang, P. & Liu, X., 2016. "Hidden Markov model for municipal waste generation forecasting under uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 639-651.
    6. Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Duan, Wenqi & Khurshid, Adnan & Nazir, Naila & Khan, Khalid & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2022. "From gray to green: Energy crises and the role of CPEC," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 188-207.
    8. Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Wang Jian-hua & He Rui-min & Amgad ElMahdi & Liu Jin-hua & Wang Xin-gong & David King & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2014. "Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 107-120, January.
    9. Xu, Lulin & Li, Zhongwu, 2024. "The impact of “Internet plus” enterprises on municipal solid waste classification and social welfare: An example from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. Jin, Youliang & Wang, Shujuan & Cheng, Xu & Zeng, Huixiang, 2024. "Can environmental tax reform curb corporate environmental violations? A quasi-natural experiment based on China's “environmental fees to taxes”," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Dell'Anno, Roberto & Pergolizzi, Antonio & Pittiglio, Rosanna & Reganati, Filippo, 2020. "Waste crime in Italian Regions: A Structural Equation Approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Florian Kapmeier & Paulo Gonçalves, 2018. "Wasted paradise? Policies for Small Island States to manage tourism‐driven growth while controlling waste generation: the case of the Maldives," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 172-221, January.
    13. D'Amato, Alessio & Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Nicolli, Francesco & Zoli, Mariangela, 2018. "Illegal waste disposal: Enforcement actions and decentralized environmental policy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 56-65.
    14. Ortega-Rodríguez, Cristina & Labella, Álvaro & Ruiz-Rodríguez, Ma del Consuelo, 2025. "The Compliance Officer in Nonprofit Cooperative Societies: Validation of the figure through the Best–Worst Method," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. D’Amato, Alessio & Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Nicolli, Francesco, 2015. "Waste and organized crime in regional environments," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 185-201.
    16. Amedeo Argentiero & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Does Tax Evasion Affect Economic Crime?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 441-482, June.
    17. Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Shahid Shamsuddin & He Rui-min & Xia Xing-hui & Mou Xin-li, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Alm, James & Shimshack, Jay, 2014. "Environmental Enforcement and Compliance: Lessons from Pollution, Safety, and Tax Settings," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 10(4), pages 209-274, December.
    19. Dipsikha Dasgupta & Anupam Debsarkar & Tumpa Hazra & B. K. Bala & Amitava Gangopadhyay & Debasish Chatterjee, 2017. "Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse-landfill-based disposal pattern in India: a system dynamics approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1473-1487, August.
    20. Wafa Mohammad Abdaljabar & Norhayati Zakuan & Muhamad Zameri Mat Saman & Mariam Setapa, 2025. "The Effect of Enterprise Risk Management Implementation on Non-Financial Performance in Jordan Manufacturing Firms: A Review," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 17(1), pages 148-157.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:7:y:2025:i:1:n:e201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.