Attack on Climate: The Persistent Effects of Authoritarianism on Climate Policy Equilibria

In this paper, I examine whether exposure to authoritarian rule, which often focuses on preventing the emergence of pro‐environmental groups that might threaten regime stability, persists after regime collapse and the onset of democratisation. Empirically, I exploit the post‐World War II division of Germany into two states, one of which became a liberal democracy and the other a Soviet‐style autocracy, in a geographic regression discontinuity design. I show that districts from the former East have lower climate policy equilibrium levels, which means that more climate‐ambitious political parties are less likely to receive strong electoral support. Crucially, these effects are independent of East Germans' preferences over other political conflicts, suggesting that authoritarian rule had a direct and persistent effect on environmental attitudes. Moreover, I show that the authoritarian legacy also manifests itself in increased polarisation over climate change policies, which, combined with lower demand for such measures, makes the former East Germany a breeding ground for climate‐sceptical political parties.