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Infrastructure Impact of Climate Change in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Is the Decarbonizing Strategy the Cinderella of Climate Action?

Author

Listed:
  • Fisayo Fagbemi
  • Adeyemi Fajingbesi
  • Kehinde Mary Bello

Abstract

Under a variety of climate scenarios, securing climate‐resilient infrastructure for sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) will require a comprehensive understanding of the extent of infrastructure vulnerability to climate change. This study explores the climate–infrastructure vulnerability linkage in SSA over the period 1995–2022, using Panel‐Spatial Correlation Consistent augmented with Least Square Dummy Variables (PSCC‐LSDV) and Two‐Step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Results indicate that carbon emissions positively and significantly influence the infrastructure vulnerability index. This implies that if the generation of carbon emissions continues to increase, the level of infrastructure vulnerability to the changing climate will possibly rise, suggesting that the fragility of infrastructure systems in SSA could be exacerbated in the face of changing climatic patterns. Hence, the study stresses that the sustainability of infrastructure depends on how to mitigate and adapt to climate effects. If emission reduction could be effectively sustained through relevant mitigation measures, it would help reduce the levels of infrastructure vulnerability across the region. It is thus suggested that driving sustainable development through climate‐resilient infrastructure initiatives should be widely embraced. The quest for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions should also be given maximum support. 在各种气候情景下, 确保撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)地区基础设施具备气候复原力一事要求全面了解其基础设施对气候变化的脆弱程度。本研究采用面板‐空间相关一致性最小二乘虚拟变量法(PSCC‐LSDV)和两步系统广义矩估计法(GMM), 探究了1995年至2022年期间SSA地区气候与基础设施脆弱性的关联。结果表明, 碳排放对基础设施脆弱性指数具有显著的正向影响。这意味着, 如果碳排放持续增加, 基础设施对气候变化的脆弱性水平可能会上升, 那么SSA地区基础设施系统的脆弱性可能会在变化的气候模式面前加剧。因此, 本研究强调, 基础设施的可持续性取决于如何减缓和适应气候影响。如果能够通过相关的减缓措施来有效持续减排, 那么将有助于降低该地区基础设施的脆弱性水平。因此, 建议广泛支持通过气候适应型基础设施倡议来推动可持续发展。减少温室气体排放的努力也应得到最大程度的支持。 Bajo diversos escenarios climáticos, asegurar una infraestructura resiliente al clima en África subsahariana (ASS) requerirá una comprensión integral del grado de vulnerabilidad de la infraestructura al cambio climático. Este estudio explora la relación entre el clima y la vulnerabilidad de la infraestructura en ASS durante el período 1995‐2022, utilizando la Correlación Espacial Panel Consistente aumentada con Variables Ficticias de Mínimos Cuadrados (PSCC‐LSDV) y el Método Generalizado de Momentos (GMM) de Sistemas de Dos Etapas. Los resultados indican que las emisiones de carbono influyen positiva y significativamente en el índice de vulnerabilidad de la infraestructura. Esto implica que, si la generación de emisiones de carbono continúa aumentando, es posible que aumente el nivel de vulnerabilidad de la infraestructura al cambio climático, lo que sugiere que la fragilidad de los sistemas de infraestructura en ASS podría verse exacerbada ante los patrones climáticos cambiantes. Por lo tanto, el estudio enfatiza que la sostenibilidad de la infraestructura depende de cómo mitigar y adaptarse a los efectos del clima. Si la reducción de emisiones se pudiera mantener eficazmente mediante medidas de mitigación pertinentes, se contribuiría a reducir los niveles de vulnerabilidad de la infraestructura en toda la región. Por lo tanto, se sugiere promover ampliamente el desarrollo sostenible mediante iniciativas de infraestructura resiliente al clima. También se debe brindar el máximo apoyo a la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisayo Fagbemi & Adeyemi Fajingbesi & Kehinde Mary Bello, 2025. "Infrastructure Impact of Climate Change in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Is the Decarbonizing Strategy the Cinderella of Climate Action?," Journal of Critical Infrastructure Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:crtinf:v:6:y:2025:i:2:n:e12042
    DOI: 10.1002/jci3.12042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Isaac Akomea-Frimpong & Andrew Victor Kabenlah Blay Jnr, 2025. "Examining Strategies to Manage Climate Risks of PPP Infrastructure Projects," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, October.

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