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A Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy

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  • Joshua D. Kertzer
  • Thomas Zeitzoff

Abstract

If public opinion about foreign policy is such an elite‐driven process, why does the public often disagree with what elites have to say? We argue here that elite cue‐taking models in International Relations are both overly pessimistic and unnecessarily restrictive. Members of the public may lack information about the world around them, but they do not lack principles, and information need not only cascade from the top down. We present the results from five survey experiments where we show that cues from social peers are at least as strong as those from political elites. Our theory and results build on a growing number of findings that individuals are embedded in a social context that combines with their general orientations toward foreign policy in shaping responses toward the world around them. Thus, we suggest the public is perhaps better equipped for espousing judgments in foreign affairs than many of our top‐down models claim.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua D. Kertzer & Thomas Zeitzoff, 2017. "A Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 543-558, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:61:y:2017:i:3:p:543-558
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12314
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    Cited by:

    1. Anke Moerland & Clara Weinhardt, 2020. "Politicisation ‘Reversed’: EU Free Trade Negotiations with West Africa and the Caribbean," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 266-276.
    2. Charlotte Grynberg & Stefanie Walter & Fabio Wasserfallen, 2020. "Expectations, vote choice and opinion stability since the 2016 Brexit referendum," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(2), pages 255-275, June.
    3. Dirk De Bièvre & Arlo Poletti, 2020. "Towards Explaining Varying Degrees of Politicization of EU Trade Agreement Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 243-253.
    4. Sean D. Ehrlich & Christopher Gahagan, 2023. "The Multisided Threat to Free Trade: Protectionism and Fair Trade During Increasing Populism," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 223-236.
    5. Alrababah, Ala & Beerli, Andreas & Hangartner, Dominik & Ward, Dalston, 2024. "From Border Opening to Political Closing: Immigration and Voting for the Far Right in Switzerland," SocArXiv hgczq, Center for Open Science.
    6. Robert M. Mackay & Roberto Minunno & Gregory M. Morrison, 2020. "Strategic Decisions for Sustainable Management at Significant Tourist Sites," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Mujtaba Ali Isani, 2021. "Methodological Problems of Using Arabic-Language Twitter as a Gauge for Arab Attitudes Toward Politics and Society," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 8(1), pages 22-35, March.
    8. Plouffe, Michael, 2024. "The Public and the Assembly: Foreign Public Opinion and Voting in the UNGA," OSF Preprints pu2yv, Center for Open Science.
    9. Junming Huang & Gavin G. Cook & Yu Xie, 2021. "Large-scale quantitative evidence of media impact on public opinion toward China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Rudolph, Lukas & Freitag, Markus & Thurner, Paul, 2021. "The Comparative Legitimacy of Arms Exports - A Conjoint Experiment in Germany and France," SocArXiv r73pv, Center for Open Science.
    11. Gomez, Miguel Alberto & Winger, Gregory, 2023. "Public Opinion and Alliance Commitments in Cybersecurity: An Attack Against All?," SocArXiv bcwhu, Center for Open Science.
    12. Sangyong Son & Jong Hee Park, 2023. "Nonproliferation Information and Attitude Change: Evidence From South Korea," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(6), pages 1095-1127, July.

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