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A Natural Experiment in Proposal Power and Electoral Success

Author

Listed:
  • Peter John Loewen
  • Royce Koop
  • Jaime Settle
  • James H. Fowler

Abstract

Does lawmaker behavior influence electoral outcomes? Observational studies cannot elucidate the effect of legislative proposals on electoral outcomes, since effects are confounded by unobserved differences in legislative and political skill. We take advantage of a unique natural experiment in the Canadian House of Commons that allows us to estimate how proposing legislation affects election outcomes. The right of noncabinet members to propose legislation is assigned by lottery. Comparing outcomes between those who were granted the right to propose and those who were not, we show that incumbents of the governing party enjoy a 2.7 percentage point bonus in vote total in the election following their winning the right to introduce a single piece of legislation, which translates to a 7% increase in the probability of winning. The causal effect results from higher likeability among constituents. These results demonstrate experimentally that what politicians do as lawmakers has a causal effect on electoral outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter John Loewen & Royce Koop & Jaime Settle & James H. Fowler, 2014. "A Natural Experiment in Proposal Power and Electoral Success," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 189-196, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:58:y:2014:i:1:p:189-196
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12042
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristine Eck & Charles Crabtree, 2020. "Gender differences in the prosecution of police assault: Evidence from a natural experiment in Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Damien Bol & Philipp Harfst & André Blais & Sona N Golder & Jean-François Laslier & Laura B Stephenson & Karine Van der Straeten, 2016. "Addressing Europe’s democratic deficit: An experimental evaluation of the pan-European district proposal," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(4), pages 525-545, December.

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