Regional foresight and scenario modeling of socio-economic transformation: The case of the Kostanay Region, Kazakhstan

This study investigates the spatial and socio-economic transformation of the labour market in the Kostanay Region of Kazakhstan through the application of foresight and scenario modelling. The research aims to construct a conceptual and predictive framework of regional employment transformation that integrates statistical indicators, expert judgments, and technological trajectories within a spatial foresight perspective. A mixed quantitative–qualitative design was employed, combining regression modelling, SWOT analysis, and expert foresight sessions. Empirical data were derived from official statistics for 2018–2023 and complemented by ILO, OECD, and WEF reports. Expert panels (n = 42) from academia, business, and public administration contributed to validating the scenario assumptions. Multiple regression analysis revealed that Gross Regional Product, investment in fixed assets, and digitalization exert positive effects on employment, whereas migration balance negatively influences labour potential. Three alternative development scenarios were modelled up to 2039: Baseline, Innovation-Driven, and Green Growth. The innovation-driven trajectory ensures the highest productivity and export potential through technological modernization, while the green scenario emphasizes ecological efficiency and sustainability. The findings underscore that the integration of investment, technological, and human capital policies is critical for enhancing regional competitiveness and achieving sustainable socio-economic development under demographic constraints.