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How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030

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  • Jorgen Randers

Abstract

Historical data for the last fifty years shows that there is a surprisingly strong correlation between the growth rate of a nation’s GDP per person and its income level. The growth rate declines linearly with income, and this relationship can be used to estimate the future growth rate of a nation’s economy. Using the same method it is also possible to forecast the share of GDP in agriculture, industry, and services – and to demonstrate the continuing decline of the share in industry as a nation get very rich. This article concludes with a discussion of the likely impact of robotisation and greening on GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorgen Randers, 2016. "How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 17(2), pages 63-78, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:640
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