The Great Moderation and the New Business Cycle
There is a new approach to modeling business cycles that is gaining acceptance. It appears that there is good evidence that this approach may have a great deal to offer in understanding the causes and processes of major economic business cycles associated with financial crisis. This paper does not intend to define a mathematical model but instead describes the ideas and theories behind this new approach. In addition, this paper addresses a few of the unique challenges officials within the United States face with the current global crisis. The new approach has at its core the belief that the structure of our current economy, as well as many European economies, has changed significantly. Starting around 1983-1985 a structural break occurred that resulted in a period where changes in GDP, consumption and inflation ceased to experience high volatility. This period has been dubbed “The Great Moderation” and it is significant. The standard deviation during the years 1985-2004 was but one-half the standard deviation of the quarterly growth rate of real gross domestic product between the years 1960-1984. A variety of hypothesis for this period has been put forth of which will not be discussed in this paper. More importantly here, is that these new economies are subject to business cycles that are endogenous in nature and are highly correlated with financial crisis. It is believed that these new economies have specific characteristics that generate these financial business cycles. These cycles are not triggered by exogenous supply or demand shocks that throw an economy off of a steady state but instead are an endogenous force within the gears of the system itself that creates imbalances that can build up without any noticeable increase in inflation - the traditional parameter typically used to monitor imbalances. The main characteristic of this new era of Great Moderation is rapidly rising growth coupled with low and stable prices which is highly correlated with an increase
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
- Robert J. Barro, 1996.
"Inflation and growth,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 153-169.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003.
"A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?,"
BIS Working Papers
127, Bank for International Settlements.
- Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
- Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996.
"Inflation, Asset Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 241-75.
- Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1998. "Inflation, Asset Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm44, Yale School of Management.
- Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim, 2007. "What can (macro-)prudential policy do to support monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 242, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ed Jones)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.