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Digital Financial Inclusion and Economic Resilience: A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Brazilian Metropolitan Regions

Author

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  • Rodrigo Bochner

    (RBCH, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract

This study investigates the causal relationship between digital financial inclusion and economic resilience across 27 Brazilian metropolitan regions during 2019-2024. Employing a spatial Durbin model with instrumental variables and panel data incorporating mobile banking penetration, digital payment adoption, and microenterprise credit access, results reveal that a 10-percentage-point increase in digital financial inclusion enhances economic resilience by 3.7%. Spatial spillover effects account for 42% of total impacts, indicating substantial inter-regional multipliers. Effects are heterogeneous across income distributions: lower-income municipalities experience amplified benefits (elasticity: 0.52 vs. 0.31 for high-income areas). Threshold analysis identifies that digital infrastructure quality critically moderates the inclusion-resilience nexus. Findings provide novel empirical evidence for policymakers designing inclusive digital economy strategies in emerging markets, emphasizing coordinated metropolitan-level interventions and targeted infrastructure investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Bochner, 2026. "Digital Financial Inclusion and Economic Resilience: A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Brazilian Metropolitan Regions," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 34-44, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wei:journl:v:16:y:2026:i:1:p:34-44
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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