IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/paoglc/v20y2013i1p47-62n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast changes for heat and cold stress in Warsaw in the 21st century, and their possible influence on mortality risk

Author

Listed:
  • Błażejczyk Krzysztof

    (Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences Twarda 51/55, 00-818 Warszawa, Poland)

  • Idzikowska Danuta

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland)

  • Błażejczyk Anna

    (Bioklimatologia, Laboratory of Bioclimatology and Environmental Ergonomics Łukowska str. 51/55, 04-133 Warszawa, Poland)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research dealing with forecast changes in the frequency of occurrence of heat and cold stress in Warsaw (Poland) in the years 2001-2100, and the possible influence these may exert on mortality risk. Heat and cold stress were assessed by reference to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTC I), for which values were calculated using meteorological data derived from the MPI-M-RE MO regional climate model, at a with spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. The simulations used boundary conditions from the EC HAMP5 Global Climate Model, for SRES scenario A1B. Predictions of mortality rate were in turn based on experimental epidemiological data from the period 1993-2002. Medical data consist of daily numbers of deaths within the age category above 64 years (TM64+). It proved possible to observe a statistically significant relationship between UTC I and mortality rates, this serving as a basis for predicting possible changes in mortality in the 21st century due to changing conditions as regards heat and cold stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Błażejczyk Krzysztof & Idzikowska Danuta & Błażejczyk Anna, 2013. "Forecast changes for heat and cold stress in Warsaw in the 21st century, and their possible influence on mortality risk," Papers on Global Change IGBP, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 47-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:paoglc:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:47-62:n:2
    DOI: 10.2478/igbp-2013-0002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/igbp-2013-0002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/igbp-2013-0002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:paoglc:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:47-62:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.