Determinants of Non-Performing Loans for the EEC Region. A Financial Stability Perspective

This article investigates the determinants of non-performing loans for a panel of EEC countries and the implications for the real economy, covering the period 2005-2017. Among the determinants, the paper proposes macroeconomic factors, banking sector variables, and cost and governance indicators. Additionally, the paper explores the extensive use of macroprudential measures in these countries. Using a panel with fixed effects and a dynamic GMM estimator, the results support the existing findings that adverse macroeconomic developments are generally associated with higher non-performing loans, while increases in NPLs have a rather transitory effect on the real economy and credit. NPL ratios increase if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, while an improvement in the government effectiveness reduces them. A more profitable and better capitalized banking sector generally leads to lower NPLs. Moreover, countries with higher past credit growth rates witnessed higher NPLs in the periods that followed. These results support the use of macroprudential measures for increasing the resilience of borrowers, such as limits on the indebtedness level (such as debt service-to-income, DSTI or loan-to-value, LTV caps), as tools to temper the credit cycle.