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Local agricultural markets and external shocks – the case of Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Ciżkowicz Piotr

    (Collegium of Economic Analysis, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Janecki Jaroslaw

    (Collegium of Management and Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Olipra Jakub

    (Collegium of Management and Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Wojciechowski Wiktor

    (Collegium of Economic Analysis, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

We quantify the role of individual factors in shaping the domestic prices of selected grains and oilseeds in Poland and test the hypothesis of whether a favorable supply situation can isolate the domestic market from external shocks. We carried out estimations using error correction and local projection econometric models. The results lead to the following conclusions. First, futures contracts have a significant impact on domestic prices of wheat, corn, and rapeseed. Second, an important factor that determines the prices of wheat, corn, and rapeseed is the EUR/PLN exchange rate. However, the strength of this influence and its time horizon differs strongly depending on the analyzed commodity. Third, the influence of other factors is limited. The obtained results indicate that Poland’s relatively high degree of self-sufficiency in the production of wheat, corn, and rapeseed does not isolate the prices of these agricultural commodities from the impact of external factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciżkowicz Piotr & Janecki Jaroslaw & Olipra Jakub & Wojciechowski Wiktor, 2025. "Local agricultural markets and external shocks – the case of Poland," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 61(1), pages 3-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:61:y:2025:i:1:p:3-16:n:1006
    DOI: 10.2478/ijme-2024-0028
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    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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