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Seeding a Message to Harvest Reach. Predicting and Optimizing the Spread of Electronic Word-of-Mouth

Author

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  • van der Lans Ralf

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong)

  • van Bruggen Gerrit
  • Wierenga Berend

    (Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University)

  • Eliashberg Jehoshua

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

In a viral marketing campaign organizations stimulate customers to forward marketing messages to their contacts. To optimize a viral campaign it is necessary to predict how many customers will be reached, how this reach evolves, and how it depends on promotion activities. a new Viral Branching model can provide these results. It is based on insights from epidemiology and the spread of viruses and was adapted to a marketing context and an electronic environment. The model is applied to an actual viral marketing campaign in which over 200,000 customers participated during a six-week period. The results show that the model quickly predicts the actual reach of the campaign and serves as a valuable tool to support marketing decisions related to online campaigns

Suggested Citation

  • van der Lans Ralf & van Bruggen Gerrit & Wierenga Berend & Eliashberg Jehoshua, 2012. "Seeding a Message to Harvest Reach. Predicting and Optimizing the Spread of Electronic Word-of-Mouth," GfK Marketing Intelligence Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 32-41, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:gfkmir:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:32-41:n:4
    DOI: 10.2478/gfkmir-2014-0039
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