Probability of Demographic and Economic Factors on Tobacco Cigarette Consumptions in Indonesia

Subject and Purpose of the Work Tobacco consumption in Indonesia is a significant public health challenge, with economic and demographic factors playing a crucial role in shaping individual smoking behaviour. This study seeks to identify determinants that influence smoking status at the individual level. Cigarette consumption (both factory-made and hand-rolled) is defined as a binary dependent variable. Materials and Methods Using 2020 SUSENAS data (n=776,576), binary logistic regression examined factors like age, gender, marital status, education, income, health insurance, and assets. The analysis incorporates pseudo R-square, simultaneous, and partial tests to assess model fit and variable significance. Results The findings indicate that age, gender, marital status, education level, health insurance ownership, and asset ownership significantly influence the probability of tobacco cigarette consumption. Notably, health insurance ownership and asset ownership serve as protective factors, reducing the likelihood of smoking. Contrary to conventional economic theory, household income does not show a significant impact on smoking behavior in the Indonesian context. Conclusion This study concludes that demographic factors and economic security indicators – particularly health insurance and asset ownership – play a critical role in shaping tobacco consumption decisions in Indonesia. The non-significance of income highlights the unique socio-cultural and addictive nature of smoking in Indonesia, which may limit the effectiveness of income-based policy measures. The results underscore the need for integrated public health strategies that combine education, health insurance expansion, asset-building initiatives, and targeted excise policies to reduce smoking prevalence effectively.