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Concept of uncertainty in relation to the foresight research

Author

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  • Magruk Andrzej

    (Bialystok University of Technology, Management Faculty, International China and Central-Eastern Europe lnstitute of Logistics and Service Science, Poland)

Abstract

Uncertainty is one of the most important features of many areas of social and economic life, especially in the forward-looking context. On the one hand, the degree of uncertainty is associated with the objective essence of randomness of the phenomenon, and on the other, with the subjective perspective of a man. Future-oriented perception of human activities is laden with an incomplete specificity of the analysed phenomena, their volatility, and lack of continuity. A man is unable to determine, with complete certainty, the further course of these phenomena. According to the author of this article, in order to significantly reduce the uncertainty while making strategic decisions in a complex environment, we should focus our actions on the future through systemic research of foresight. This article attempts to answer the following research questions: 1) What is the relationship between foresight studies in the system perspective to studies of the uncertainty? 2) What classes of foresight methods enable the research of uncertainty in the process of system inquiry of the future? This study conducted deductive reasoning based on the results of the analysis methods and criticism of literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Magruk Andrzej, 2017. "Concept of uncertainty in relation to the foresight research," Engineering Management in Production and Services, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 46-55, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecoman:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:46-55:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/emj-2017-0005
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