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The Communication Effects on Inflation Forecast Errors: Empirical Evidence from Colombia

Author

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  • Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata
  • Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to explore the central bank's ability to management inflation forecast errors in Colombia. We present empirical evidence based on the Colombian experience with data from the period of 2008 to 2020. The communication channel selected for analysis is the press releases. The empirical evidence is divided into three steps: (i) regression analysis using an EGARCH model, (ii) use of VAR models, and (iii) variance decomposition analysis. The communications effects are significant for several months and that close to half of the forecast error variance can be explained by innovations in central bank communication. The results obtained allow monetary policymakers to develop more efficient strategies for anchoring expectations and strengthening the central bank credibility. Keywords: Central bank communication, Forecast errors, Monetary policy. JEL: E52, E58, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2022. "The Communication Effects on Inflation Forecast Errors: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 69(3), pages 427-445.
    • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:69:y:2022:i:3:p:427-445:id:1343
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Forecast errors; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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