IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit: Before and After The Global Crisis


  • Chan Tze-Haw

    () (Graduate School of Business, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang, Malaysia)

  • Lye Chun Teck

    (Faculty of Business, Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama, 75450 Ayer Keroh, Melaka, Malaysia)

  • Hooy Chee Wooi

    (School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang, Malaysia)


The forecasting of exchange rates remains a difficult task due to global crises and authority interventions. This study employs the monetary-portfolio balance exchange rate model and its unrestricted version in the analysis of Malaysian Ringgit during the post-Bretton Wood era (1991M1–2012M12), before and after the subprime crisis. We compare two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) estimation procedures (MLFN and GRNN) with the random walks (RW) and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods. The out-of sample forecasting assessment reveals the following. First, the unrestricted model has superior forecasting performance compared to the original model during the 24-month forecasting horizon. Second, the ANNs have outperformed both the RW and VAR forecasts in all cases. Third, the MLFNs consistently outperform the GRNNs in both exchange rate models in all evaluation criteria. Fourth, forecasting performance is weakened when the post-subprime crisis period was included. In brief, economic fundamentals are still vital in forecasting the Malaysian Ringgit, but the monetary mechanism may not sufficiently work through foreign exchange adjustments in the short run due to global uncertainties. These findings are beneficial for policy making, investment modelling, and corporate planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan Tze-Haw & Lye Chun Teck & Hooy Chee Wooi, 2013. "Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit: Before and After The Global Crisis," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 9(2), pages 157-175.
  • Handle: RePEc:usm:journl:aamjaf00902_157-175

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usm:journl:aamjaf00902_157-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journal Division, Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.