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Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Chereshnev
  • Aleksandr Kuklin

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Aleksandra Vasilyeva

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences - Ural Branch, Centre for Economic Security,)

Abstract

The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region†owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Chereshnev & Aleksandr Kuklin & Aleksandra Vasilyeva, 2010. "Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 38-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2010:i:2:p:38-46
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Digas & Valeriy Rozenberg & Anastasiya Boyarskih, 2015. "Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model. Part 1," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 346-356.
    2. Olga Kalachikova & Alexandra Shabunova, 2012. "Population policy of Russia: regional dimension," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 77-89.

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