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Inflation and Attention Thresholds in Ukraine

Author

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  • Maksym Homeniuk

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between inflation levels and public attention to inflation in Ukraine. Specifically, it estimates a threshold value of inflation above which the population's attention to inflation intensifies. The analysis utilizes monthly inflation data and the Google Trends index for the period spanning January 2017 to January 2022. A threshold generalized linear model is employed to model and estimate the attention threshold. For the selected period, the estimated attention threshold for inflation in Ukraine is 9.9%. Beyond this point, public attention to inflation initially increases sharply before gradually declining. Awareness of this critical value can enable the National Bank of Ukraine to respond more swiftly to emerging crisis situations. Furthermore, this quantification can assist the National Bank, along with other domestic and international experts and organizations, in more precisely defining and communicating the concept of high inflation to the Ukrainian populace.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksym Homeniuk, 2025. "Inflation and Attention Thresholds in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 05, pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2025:i:05:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2025.op05
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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