Foreign Experienñe And Ukrainian Realities Of Interbudgetary Transfers Prognostication
Methodical approaches towards the prognostication of interbudgetary streams structure with the usage of matrix of probabilities transition (A.Markov’s chains) are revealed in the article. It will enable to investigate the situation in 2010 and to suggest a set of measures as to the regulation of interbudgetary relations in Ukraine during the transformation changes. Purpose of the article is to investigate a situation which exists nowadays in the field of interbudgetary transfers and to predict their structure in 2010 by means of mathematical apparatus. Investigation summary with the substantial report on the scientific results received. The first works in the field of economic prognostication and planning abroad are dated to the end of the Õ²Õ century. They occurred at defining certain tendencies of time series with the use of methods of expert estimation and extrapolation. However, it is «The Great Depression» in 1929-1933 that is considered by the majority of scientists to be the period of establishment of these sciences. For the first time in foreign practice planning and prognostication are applied at the macroeconomic level during the formation of fiscal and monetary policies with the usage of linear programming, system analysis models, expert assessment. It’s worth mentioning that every country is characterized by different approaches to prognostication and planning of social-economic processes taking into account the specificity of national economy. The European experience of prognostication of social-economic processes singles out three methods: - method of short-term economic analysis, aimed at the study of intraannual, monthly series as a rule. Reliability of such approach is not supported with either balance or economic modeling. - method of «National Accounts», aimed at annual national accounts management, which later on are projected on to a future period. They include the prognoses of annual streams within the limits of national accounts. - Ian Tinbergen’s method, aimed at economic modeling of last year's firm tendencies. Going back to prognostication of interbudgetary transfers, we consider that it is prediction of the direction of interbudgetary streams development, their possible states in prospect, ways and terms of achievement of these states grounded on the basis of actual accounts. Prognosis is based on the detailed study of information concerning the interbudgetary streams state in current situation, determination of different variants of the predictive indexes achievement in accordance with the revealed conformities to natural laws, search of the best variant of interbudgetary relations development resulting from the conducted analysis.
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