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Una nota sobre el modelo de telaraña y los mercados a futuro

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  • Maurice W. Schiff

Abstract

Generalmente se acepta que los mercados que funcionan con expectativas del tipo “telaraña” son ineficientes y que agentes con expectativas correctas podrían explotar esta ineficiencia ya sea a través de convertirse en productores del bien en cuestión o vendiendo las predicciones propias que serían más acertadas que la del tipo “telaraña”. Esta nota presenta un tercer método para explotar las oportunidades de arbitraje que resulta superior a los otros dos. Este método se refiere a la compra y venta de contratos a futuro. Se demuestra que en ausencia de costos de transacciones el mercado a futuro, la solución competitiva conduce a estabilidad de precios. Finalmente, se evalúa el beneficio social de los mercados a futuro y de la capacidad de realizar predicciones más eficientes.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice W. Schiff, 1982. "Una nota sobre el modelo de telaraña y los mercados a futuro," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 137-144, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:9:y:1982:i:1:p:137-144
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