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Estimating the Economic and Budgetary Effects of Research Investments

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  • Theresa Gullo
  • Benjamin Page
  • David Weiner
  • Heidi Williams

Abstract

Many US federal agencies model the economic and budgetary effects of research and development (R&D) investments—both public R&D and private R&D—as if R&D were the same as any other form of investment, such as physical capital investment. However, in recent decades, a broad base of evidence has developed suggesting that such modeling may result in projections that are not well aligned with the actual economic and budgetary effects of R&D investments. In this paper, we attempt to synthesize the economic evidence relevant to estimating the economic and budgetary effects of R&D and examine how and where this research literature could potentially be incorporated into the standard projections produced by various federal agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Theresa Gullo & Benjamin Page & David Weiner & Heidi Williams, 2025. "Estimating the Economic and Budgetary Effects of Research Investments," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 53-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:tpolec:doi:10.1086/734961
    DOI: 10.1086/734961
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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Elmendorf & R. Glenn Hubbard & Zachary Liscow, 2025. "Policies to Reduce Federal Budget Deficits by Increasing Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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