Revenue Composition and Budget Variances of Cities During the Pandemic: Insights from Financial Reports of Ten Large U.S. Cities

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the budgetary revenues of ten large cities in the United States. The analysis uses data from annual comprehensive financial reports to examine how the pandemic influenced the revenue composition of sample cities and whether the variances in ex-ante revenue estimates and actuals changed significantly during the pandemic. It finds significant variation across cities in terms of how the pandemic affected their revenue composition. During FY 2020 and FY 2021, there was an increase in budget variances, but modified budgets significantly lowered the errors. Most cities collected more total taxes than anticipated in the budget estimates, and grant revenue increased as federal aid was released. A comparison of the fiscal outcomes of the pandemic with those of the Great Recession finds that the errors during the pandemic were much larger. As more financial reports become available, future research can investigate the long-term impacts of the pandemic on city finances.