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Budget Volatility and Economic Base Composition in Local Governments

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  • Michael R. Overton
  • Robert L. (Bob) Bland

Abstract

Budget volatility—the difference between expected and actual revenues and expenditures—is a critical component to sustaining a local government’s fiscal health. Although scholars have examined many determinants of budget volatility, less understood is the effect of a local government’s economy—the composition of its economic base—on budget volatility. To fill this gap, this article uses panel data methods to test the impact of a city’s economic base on budget volatility. The results suggest that industrial diversification has no impact on budget stability but that certain industrial clusters do generally promote budget stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Overton & Robert L. (Bob) Bland, 2022. "Budget Volatility and Economic Base Composition in Local Governments," Municipal Finance Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 1-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:munifj:doi:10.1086/mfj43010001
    DOI: 10.1086/MFJ43010001
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