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Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off

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  • Rufei Guo
  • Junjian Yi
  • Junsen Zhang
  • Ning Zhang

Abstract

We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality trade-off. An exogenous increase in fertility can be either desired or undesired. We derive a positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We propose an econometric framework to identify treatment effects of desired and undesired fertility increases and estimate a structural model to gauge the quantitative importance of the novel rationing income effect. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing between desired and undesired changes when evaluating social programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rufei Guo & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang & Ning Zhang, 2025. "Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(10), pages 3349-3386.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/736768
    DOI: 10.1086/736768
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    1. Jin, Wenchao & Jin, Zhangfeng, 2026. "Migration Reform and Fertility: Evidence from Rural China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1718, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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