IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v63y1990i1p1-17.html

Forecasting Inflation Using Interest-Rate and Time-Series Models: Some International Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Hafer, R W
  • Hein, Scott E

Abstract

It has been suggested that inflation forecasts derived from short-term interest rates are as accurate as time-series forecasts. Previous analyses of this notion have focused on U.S. data, providing mixed results. In this article, the authors extend previous work by testing the hypothesis using data taken from the United States and five other countries. Using monthly Eurocurrency rates and the consumer price index for the period 1967-86, their results indicate that time-series forecasts of inflation have equal or lower forecast errors and have unbiased predictions more often than the interest-rate-based forecasts. Copyright 1990 by the University of Chicago.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafer, R W & Hein, Scott E, 1990. "Forecasting Inflation Using Interest-Rate and Time-Series Models: Some International Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:63:y:1990:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1086/296480
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/296480
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/296480?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mester Ioana Teodora, 2009. "VEC MODEL OF DEVELOPING COUNTRY INFLATIONARY DYNAMICS a€“ AN EMPIRICAL STUDY a€“ THE CASE OF ROMANIA," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 677-682, May.
    2. Param Silvapulle & Ramya Hewarathna, 2002. "Robust estimation and inflation forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2277-2282.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:63:y:1990:i:1:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.jstor.org/journal/jbusiness .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.