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Spatial Clustering of Natural Disasters, Selection in Migration, and Economic Outcomes

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  • Junni Pan

Abstract

This paper shows that natural disasters with higher spatial clustering are associated with positive selection in migration. Focusing on extreme precipitation events in rural Chinese counties, I analyze their effects using census and rainfall data within a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that natural disasters significantly increase out-migration, primarily by worsening local economic conditions. More spatially clustered disasters induce a stronger response from younger, male, and better-educated individuals, who are associated with longer migration distances and better economic outcomes. A migration decision model suggests that more spatially clustered disasters may exacerbate inequalities in mobility. Targeted subsidies for individuals with lower productivity and higher migration costs could help promote more equitable access to economic opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Junni Pan, 2026. "Spatial Clustering of Natural Disasters, Selection in Migration, and Economic Outcomes," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(1), pages 431-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:doi:10.1086/738470
    DOI: 10.1086/738470
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