Cushioning the Shock: The Rise of Nonstandard Work Amid the US-China Trade War

Nonstandard work (NSW)—including flexible, informal, and dispatched employment—is reshaping labor markets worldwide. Amid escalating US-China trade tensions, we analyze millions of Chinese online job postings to examine the role of NSW as an adjustment mechanism during economic disruptions. Our findings show that NSW is concentrated in economically developed cities and in sectors such as real estate, transportation, and culture, with a strong focus on low-skilled tasks. Unlike standard employment, NSW remains resilient to tariff-induced shocks. As US tariffs restrict job opportunities and suppress wages for standard workers, firms increasingly rely on NSW, particularly for less experienced and dispatched roles, while maintaining wage levels. China’s retaliatory tariffs further amplify NSW demand, driving significant increases in job postings and wages. Using a simple trade model, we illustrate how NSW shapes labor market responses to external shocks and analyze its welfare implications, highlighting its growing role in stabilizing employment amid global trade disruptions.