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Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Arzheimer

    () (Johannes Gutenberg University)

  • Jocelyn Evans

    () (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opin- ion Quarterly 69: 342–369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31–44) demonstrate how mea- sures A′i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population is known (for example, through census data). Copyright 2016 by StataCorp LP.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Arzheimer & Jocelyn Evans, 2016. "Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(1), pages 139-158, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:139-158 Note: to access software from within Stata, net describe http://www.stata-journal.com/software/sj16-1/st0428/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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