IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tsj/stataj/v16y2016i1p139-158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Arzheimer

    () (Johannes Gutenberg University)

  • Jocelyn Evans

    () (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opin- ion Quarterly 69: 342–369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31–44) demonstrate how mea- sures A′i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population is known (for example, through census data). Copyright 2016 by StataCorp LP.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Arzheimer & Jocelyn Evans, 2016. "Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(1), pages 139-158, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:139-158
    Note: to access software from within Stata, net describe http://www.stata-journal.com/software/sj16-1/st0428/
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.stata-journal.com/article.html?article=st0428
    File Function: link to article purchase
    Download Restriction: no

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:139-158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum) or (Lisa Gilmore). General contact details of provider: http://www.stata-journal.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.