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Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States: Further Tests of the Sectoral-Shifts Hypothesis

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  • Mills, Terence C
  • Pelloni, Gianluigi
  • Zervoyianni, Athina

Abstract

This paper presents further evidence on the importance of sectoral shifts by examining unemployment fluctuations in the United States over the period 1960 to 1991, extending previous research in three directions: first, by using a thirty-industry decomposition of quarterly nonagricultural employment; second, by employing modern time-series econometric techniques; and third, by using dispersion measures purged of both monetary and aggregate demand influences. The authors' findings support the view that sectoral shifts have been an important element of fluctuations in U.S. employment and also indicate that a given amount of dispersion has been associated with more unemployment during downturns than upturns. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Mills, Terence C & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1995. "Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States: Further Tests of the Sectoral-Shifts Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 294-304, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:77:y:1995:i:2:p:294-304
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, "undated". "Intersectoral Labour Reallocation and Employment Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis using a VAR-GARCH-M model," Discussion Papers 99/4, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation," Kiel Working Papers 1928, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. repec:bla:growch:v:48:y:2017:i:2:p:246-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sonja Sheikh & Wolfgang Pauer, 1999. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in ausgewählten Ländern der Europäischen Union unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Mismatch-Komponente," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(3), pages 424-448.
    5. N. Groenewold & A.J. Hagger, 1997. "The Natural Unemployment Rate in Australia since the Seventies," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Shu-hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    7. Bakas, Dimitrios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2016. "On the significance of labour reallocation for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 229-240.
    8. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation," Kiel Working Papers 1720, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "Sectoral shocks and movement costs: Effects on employment and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 449-471.
    10. Mills, Terence C. & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Cyclical unemployment and sectoral shifts: Further tests of the Lilien hypothesis for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-60, July.
    11. Sakata, Kei & McKenzie, Colin, 2004. "The accumulation of human capital and the sectoral shifts hypothesis for different age groups," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 459-465.
    12. von Greiff, Camilo, 2007. "Specialization in Higher Education and Economic Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2007:13, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:1:p:501-526 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Yanggyu Byun & Hae-shin Hwang, 2015. "Sectoral shifts or aggregate shocks? A new test of sectoral shifts hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 481-502, September.
    15. Sakata, Kei, 2002. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 227-252, June.
    16. repec:wop:ubisop:0004 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Dimitrios Bakas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2017. "Regional And Sectoral Evidence Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Labor Reallocation: A Panel Data Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 501-526, January.
    18. Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "Inter- and Intrasectoral Shocks: Effects on the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 376-401, April.
    19. Miyagawa, Tsutomu & Sakuragawa, Yukie & Takizawa, Miho, 2006. "The impact of technology shocks on the Japanese business cycle--An empirical analysis based on Japanese industry data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 401-417, December.
    20. N. Groenewold & A.J. Hagger, 1997. "The US natural rate: A "Lilien" time-series, January 1948 to August 1996," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    21. Hogrefe, Jan & Sachs, Andreas, 2014. "Unemployment and labor reallocation in Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-083, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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