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A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of ECM and VAR Models

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  • LeSage, James P

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  • LeSage, James P, 1990. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of ECM and VAR Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 664-671, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:72:y:1990:i:4:p:664-71
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    1. Rausser, Gordon C. & Chalfant, James A. & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1985. "Instability in agricultural markets: the U.S. experience," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5zp3w60h, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    3. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Speculative Price: Economic Welfare and the Idiot of Chance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 223-232.
    4. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 17-54.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 610-622.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 469-478.
    8. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 469-478.
    9. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
    10. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 989-995.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 698-711.
    2. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    3. Papana, A. & Kyrtsou, K. & Kugiumtzis, D. & Diks, C.G.H., 2014. "Identifying causal relationships in case of non-stationary time series," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948.
    5. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    6. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014. "Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, pages 229-264.
    7. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Choy, Keen Meng, 2006. "Forecasting the global electronics cycle with leading indicators: A Bayesian VAR approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 301-315.
    8. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2012. "A latent variable approach to forecasting the unemployment rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 229-244, April.
    9. Manfred Fischer, 2012. "In honor of James P. LeSage," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, pages 1-4.
    10. Varshavsky, Alexander, 2009. "Questionable Innovations in Data Processing with Incomplete Information about the Analyzed System in Absence of Applications Limitations," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 16(4), pages 116-133.
    11. Ansari, M. I., 2002. "Impact of financial development, money, and public spending on Malaysian national income: an econometric study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 72-93.
    12. Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Forecasting Euro Area Aggregates with Bayesian VAR and VECM Models," Working Papers w200304, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Michelle Casario, 1996. "North American Free Trade Agreement Bilateral Trade Effects," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, January.
    14. Iqbal, Javed, 2001. "Forecasting methods: a comparative analysis," MPRA Paper 23856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
    15. Tom Stark, 1998. "A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    17. Shoesmith, Gary L., 1995. "Multiple cointegrating vectors, error correction, and forecasting with Litterman's model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 557-567, December.
    18. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    19. Clinebell, John M. & Kahl, Douglas R. & Stevens, Jerry L., 2000. "Integration of LIBOR and Treasury bill yields over different monetary regimes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 17-30.
    20. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:49:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-016-0587-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange, 1992. "Modèles VAR et prévisions à court terme," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 109-122.
    22. Poskitt, D. S., 2003. "On the specification of cointegrated autoregressive moving-average forecasting systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-519.
    23. Villani, Mattias, 2001. "Bayesian prediction with cointegrated vector autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605.
    24. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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