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The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Geruso

    (University of Texas at Austin and NBER)

  • Dean Spears

    (University of Texas at Austin, IZA, and IFFS)

Abstract

Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We quantify the probability of close outcomes in U.S. presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models from several sources. We show that razor-thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College (EC). And we establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote system. The tendency of the EC to generate close elections is found today and throughout U.S. presidential voting history.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Geruso & Dean Spears, 2026. "The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 727-736, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:108:y:2026:i:3:p:727-736
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01418
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