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Evaluating Policies Early in a Pandemic: Bounding Policy Effects with Nonrandomly Missing Data

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  • Brantly Callaway

    (University of Georgia)

  • Tong Li

    (Vanderbilt University)

Abstract

During the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, national and local governments introduced a number of policies to combat the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a new approach to bound the effects of such early-pandemic policies on COVID-19 cases and other outcomes while dealing with complications arising from (i) limited availability of COVID-19 tests, (ii) differential availability of COVID-19 tests across locations, and (iii) eligibility requirements for individuals to be tested. We use our approach study the effects of Tennessee’s expansion of COVID-19 testing early in the pandemic and find that the policy decreased COVID-19 cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Brantly Callaway & Tong Li, 2025. "Evaluating Policies Early in a Pandemic: Bounding Policy Effects with Nonrandomly Missing Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 803-819, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:107:y:2025:i:3:p:803-819
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01306
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