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The Targeting and Impact of Partisan Gerrymandering: Evidence from a Legislative Discontinuity

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  • Dahyeon Jeong

    (World Bank)

  • Ajay Shenoy

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

A party’s influence over redistricting increases discontinuously when its seat share in the state legislature exceeds 50%. We apply bunching tests to show that, in the election before redistricting, parties systematically win narrow majorities in legislatures of states where they have lost recent U.S. House races. This trend of losses is reversed after redistricting despite no change in overall House vote shares in states near the cutoff. The pre-to-post-redistricting change in regression discontinuity estimates implies that the party that controls redistricting engineers an 11 percentage point increase in its probability of winning a House race.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahyeon Jeong & Ajay Shenoy, 2024. "The Targeting and Impact of Partisan Gerrymandering: Evidence from a Legislative Discontinuity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 814-828, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:3:p:814-828
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01204
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