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L’Amplitude Du Cycle Économique Et De L’Écart De Production Au Liban


  • Jean-François VERNE

    () (Université Saint-Esprit de Kaslik, Liban)


This article shows that the business cycle magnitude and the output gap strongly varied in the Lebanon between 1970 and 2008, the most important variations taking place from 1975 to 1990 corresponding to the period of the civil war. Nevertheless, a decrease in the discrepancy between these two indicators around the long-run trend can be observed since the beginning of 1990s. These reductions of the cyclic amplitude and output gap do not result from the end of the war in 1990 but rather from the general government final consumption expenditure and economic dependence rate. These two variables explain a mismatch between the observed GDP and the potential GP and consequently the occurrence of economic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François VERNE, 2011. "L’Amplitude Du Cycle Économique Et De L’Écart De Production Au Liban," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 34, pages 181-201.
  • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:34:y:2011:p:181-201

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Édouard Challe, 2004. "Une décomposition du cycle boursier," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(3), pages 395-405.
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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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