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Davlat Qarzining Iqtisodiy Oʻsishga Taʼsiri: Panel Maʼlumotlar Tahlili

Author

Listed:
  • Sanakulova B. R.
  • Jamolov M.M.

Abstract

Ushbu maqolada davlat qarzining iqtisodiy oʻsish surʼatiga taʼsiri tadqiq etilgan boʻlib, diqqat markazidaqarz miqdorining iqtisodiy oʻsishga nisbatan chegaraviy qiymatini (threshold) aniqlash masalasi turadi. Tadqiqot doirasidaMustaqil Davlatlar Hamdoʻstligiga aʼzo 13 ta mamlakatning 25 yillik panel maʼlumotlari tahlil qilindi. Iqtisodiy oʻsishga taʼsiretuvchi omil sifatida davlat qarzining yalpi ichki mahsulotga nisbati (foizda) va boshqa bir qator nazorat oʻzgaruvchilari,jumladan tashqi savdo ochiqligi, asosiy kapitalga investitsiyalar ulushi, mehnat resurslari oʻsish surʼati va inflyatsiyahisobga olindi. Empirik tahlil uchun fiksirlangan va tasodifiy taʼsir modellari qoʻllanilib, Hausman testi yordamida optimalpanel modeli tanlandi, hamda Hansen 1999-yilda ishlab chiqqan usul asosida ikki rejimli threshold regressiya modeliqoʻllandi. Natijalar qarz va oʻsish oʻrtasida nolineyar, invertirlangan U shaklidagi bogʻliqlik mavjudligini koʻrsatdi. Davlatqarzi YAIMga nisbatan maʼlum darajagacha iqtisodiy oʻsishni ragʻbatlantiradi, ammo taxminan 35% atrofidagi kritiknuqtadan oshganda, qarzning qoʻshimcha oʻsishi iqtisodiy oʻsish surʼatini pasaytirishga moyillik keltirib chiqaradi. Tahlilnatijasida Oʻzbekiston misolida 2024–2030-yillarga moʻljallangan prognozlar ham keltirilgan. Maqola yakunida davlatqarzini samarali boshqarish va barqaror iqtisodiy oʻsishni taʼminlash boʻyicha tegishli xulosalar hamda tavsiyalar berilgan

Suggested Citation

  • Sanakulova B. R. & Jamolov M.M., 2025. "Davlat Qarzining Iqtisodiy Oʻsishga Taʼsiri: Panel Maʼlumotlar Tahlili," GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, "Ma'rifat-Print-Media" LLC, Tashkent State University of Economics, vol. 3(11), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:teu:ged000:v:3:y:2025:i:11:id:7966
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17685749
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