Analysis Of The Current State Of Foreign Trade Activity In Uzbekistan’S Regions And Forecasting Regional Foreign Trade Under Wto And Eaeu Accession (Based On The Case Of Kazakhstan)

In recent years, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade has expanded significantly: between 2018 and 2024, total tradeturnover increased from USD 33.8 billion to USD 65.9 billion, almost doubling. This growth was driven by favorable globalconditions and internal reforms promoting liberalization and competitiveness. Regionally, trade remains concentrated inseveral key areas: Tashkent city accounts for 35–37% of the country’s total trade, mainly machinery and raw materialsimports; Navoiy specializes in non-ferrous metals and chemicals; the Fergana Valley focuses on textiles and agriculture;and Samarkand and Bukhara are major producers of food and construction materials.Kazakhstan’s experience demonstrates how simultaneous participation in the WTO and the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU) produced mixed outcomes—enhancing export diversification but increasing dependence on Russia’s economy.Using regional panel data for Uzbekistan (2018–2024) and Kazakhstan (2015–2024), this study employs fixed-effectsmodels and ARIMA forecasts to assess regional trade prospects under WTO and EAEU scenarios. The estimates showthat in Kazakhstan, a 10% increase in regional GDP raises exports by roughly 10.5% (β₁ ≈ 1.05, p