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Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?

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  • Berdiyorov Bekzod Shoymardonovich,
  • Masharipov Sarvar Matkarimovich
  • Berdiyorov Jahongir Shaymardon o‘g‘li

Abstract

This paper continues the discussion set forth in the paper “Initial research: Are the current researched earlywarning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?” by Berdiyorov (2024) with expanding on the paper: ‘EarlyWarning Indicators of Banking Crises: Expanding the Family’ by Aldasoro, Borio and Drehmann (2018). Using a pooledlogistic model with large a data set from 1980 to 2019 containing multiple countries and crises and estimating the optimalthresholds for each indicator to produce accurate true signals of banking crises. I establish that the current EWIs, mainlythe credit-to-GDP gap, are still highly significant and reliable indicators of banking crises, producing highly significantinformative signals according to the AUROCs and signal-to-noise ratios. In addition, the additional indicators introducedin this paper are found to also be effective statistically significant indicators of vulnerabilities within the banking industry.For example, the loans-to-deposit has high AUCs across all time horizons and the highest signal-to-noise ratios amongstall the indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Berdiyorov Bekzod Shoymardonovich, & Masharipov Sarvar Matkarimovich & Berdiyorov Jahongir Shaymardon o‘g‘li, 2024. "Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?," GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, "Ma'rifat-Print-Media" LLC, Tashkent State University of Economics, vol. 2, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:teu:ged000:v:2:y:2024:id:3557
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14295179
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