An Islandscape IFD: Using the Ideal Free Distribution to Predict Pre-Columbian Settlements from Grenada to St. Vincent, Eastern Caribbean

This study employs an ideal free distribution (IFD) model to conduct a fine-grained analysis of environmental factors affecting the pre-Columbian colonisation sequence and settlement patterning in the southern Lesser Antilles of the Eastern Caribbean. We compiled a database of all known archaeological site locations and associated chronological data from St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Grenada, and vetted this dataset for accuracy. We then performed multivariate statistical analysis of the vetted site data and 24 environmental variables hypothesised to influence settlement habitat quality, including soil attributes, proximity to freshwater/stream beds, structure and sizes of marine environments, and net primary productivity (NPP) layers. Iterative testing and refinement of the model allowed for the creation of a predictive map of pre-Columbian archaeological sites over time. Results indicate proximity to freshwater wetlands, NPP, and reef size were important variables influencing habitat choice. Additionally, latitude (distance from the equator) was also a significant variable, indicating support for a proposed colonisation of the southern Lesser Antilles that began in the northern Caribbean, rather than the south. Lastly, we provide a site inventory and map of predicted site locations that can aid in the management of threatened archaeological resources within the study region.