Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change in the Kingdom of Calakmul During the Late Classic Period (AD 600–900)

Spatio-temporal modelling of land use allows an analysis of change considering socio-economic, ecological and biophysical factors. We developed a ‘spatially explicit’ model to simulate land use/cover change in the Calakmul realm during the Late Classic period, taking into account the relationship between population density, agriculture strategies and erosion and drought. Different scenarios were simulated, combining agricultural systems, patterns of distribution of settlements, population densities and rainfall variability. The models showed that scenarios based on slash-and-burn agriculture only exhibit a collapse, with population densities much lower than those widely accepted by archaeologists. The simulation that implements a combination of slash-and-burn and intensive agriculture presents a population collapse around AD 860 in concordance with the records of the abandonment of the Maya Lowlands by the Terminal Classic. Spatially explicit land change models can be useful in reconstructing past environmental conditions and understanding the role of management practices and environmental change in the successes and failures of past societies.