Operational Convergence or Divergence? Exploring the Influence of Islamic State on Militant Groups in Pakistan

Transnational terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State often rely on local militant groups to set up new affiliates or branches around the world. While past research has generally explored the motivations of groups to align, as well as the effects of alliances on lethality and survival of groups at the core of an alliance hub, there is limited analysis of how links with a transnational jihadist group triggers changes in the operational behavior of groups embedded in local conflict dynamics. To investigate this phenomenon, this study provides an assessment of the changes in Pakistan-based groups’ tactics, targets, and geographical locations after they formed operational links with Islamic State’s affiliate in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. More specifically, I examine Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar’s operational behavior shortly before and after they established links with Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), at the organizational or individual level, which emerged in 2015 and developed an extensive network in the region. The findings indicate that both groups expanded into new regions across Pakistan after the emergence of ISK, and also shifted their targeting priorities in ways that aligned with ISK’s top targets in the country. The findings further our understanding of the threat associated with the proliferation of transnational affiliates, and the security implications of interlinkages between international and local militant groups.