Assessing al-Qaeda: A Debate

Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks, the current status and future of al-Qaeda is a central policy question, especially as the U.S. government looks to pivot away from counterterrorism toward managing great power competition. This article presents a debate on this issue between Daniel Byman and Asfandyar Mir. Mir argues that al-Qaeda remains a significant threat, committed to fighting the United States despite pressures to alter direction. The control of al-Qaeda central over its major regional affiliates remains strong, with steady growth in capability. It also retains important allies and has major opportunities due to the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the domestic political environment, changing priorities in the United States, and great power competition. Byman, in contrast, contends that al-Qaeda suffers debilitating organizational problems, with affiliates having localized and the movement lacking a haven remotely comparable to pre-9/11 Afghanistan. In addition, improved counterterrorism keeps al-Qaeda off balance. If al-Qaeda remains a major threat, counterterrorism must remain among the United States’ major national security priorities, even if it is not the top one, and robust counterterrorism measures need to be sustained. If al-Qaeda is weak, the importance of counterterrorism in the hierarchy of U.S. foreign policy priorities can fall substantially.