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Militants in Retreat: How Terrorists Behave When They Are Losing

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  • Matthew Dixon

Abstract

It is often stated that militant groups rely on terrorism following setbacks, but this article is the first test this idea empirically. A statistical study of 56 losing terrorist groups shows that, as they are defeated, a greater proportion of operational activity is directed against softer targets. I argue the shift is caused by a change in strategy to focus on mobilizing support, which creates a greater perceived utility for operations against civilians. Case studies of militant groups in Chechnya and Argentina show how the change in strategy interacts with other constraints to induce a greater focus on softer targets.

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  • Matthew Dixon, 2023. "Militants in Retreat: How Terrorists Behave When They Are Losing," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 137-161, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uterxx:v:46:y:2023:i:2:p:137-161
    DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2020.1751460
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