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The IRR of a project with many potential outcomes

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  • Morris G. Danielson

Abstract

This article shows that the internal rate of return (IRR) of a project's expected cash flow stream is a weighted average of the IRRs offered by the project's (many) possible future outcomes, where the weights are calculated using the outcome probabilities and invested capital balances. Because the invested capital associated with a particular realization is a function of the Macaulay duration of the cash flows in that outcome, the weights depend on the outcome probabilities and the effective length of each cash flow stream.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris G. Danielson, 2016. "The IRR of a project with many potential outcomes," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 44-56, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:uteexx:v:61:y:2016:i:1:p:44-56
    DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2015.1095383
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    Cited by:

    1. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2016. "Capital depreciation and the underdetermination of rate of return: A unifying perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 54-79.
    2. Simona Hašková & Petr Fiala, 2023. "Internal Rate of Return Estimation of Subsidised Projects: Conventional Approach Versus fuzzy Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 1233-1249, October.

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