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Forward Exchange Market Transitional Policy Modeling: The Case of the Japanese Yen

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  • David Hudgins
  • Patrick M. Crowley

Abstract

This study explores the forward exchange market aspects for the gradual pivot of the Bank of Japan away from its unconventional expansionary monetary policies that depressed interest rates, depreciated the yen, and resisted deflation. This combination permitted the profitable “yen carry trade,” where investors borrowed in yen and invested (mainly) in US denominated assets. This study develops a dynamic continuous time model of the forward exchange market for the trading of the Japanese yen and the US dollar to analyze the emergence of a stricter Japanese monetary policy stance with higher interest rates aimed at combating a more inflationary environment.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hudgins & Patrick M. Crowley, 2025. "Forward Exchange Market Transitional Policy Modeling: The Case of the Japanese Yen," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 206-228, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:uitjxx:v:39:y:2025:i:3:p:206-228
    DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2025.2469869
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