Obesity, Mortality, and the Obesity Paradox

The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically on a worldwide basis over the last several decades, although the growth in the prevalence of obesity has slowed recently at a high level in the United States. Although there have been numerous studies of the effect of this trend on mortality, the findings have been inconsistent and controversial, in part because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationships between obesity and mortality. The objective of this article is to discuss the issues surrounding these relationships and to shed light on the likely effects of the obesity epidemic on mortality. Of particular interest is the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for overweight and in some cases obese individuals than for those of normal weight. Although more recent studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity seem to indicate those who are obese have experienced a reduced percentage of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time those currently obese have been exposed to their condition, the heterogeneity of the normal and obese populations, measurement issues including treatment of smokers and those who are ill, and study design limitations. An increased number of premature deaths may arise as more individuals who are obese are exposed for a longer period to excess adiposity. Although public policy issues surrounding obesity are being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they have and will continue to prove quite challenging for both individuals and society to manage and overcome. The prevalence of obesity has had and will continue to have a significant effect on the mortality experience in most areas of actuarial practice. As a result, it is important for actuaries to enhance their understanding of these effects.