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Gender Convergence in Human Survival and the Postponement of Death

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  • Les Mayhew
  • David Smith

Abstract

It has been a long-accepted demographic maxim that females outlive males. Using data for England and Wales, we show that life expectancy at age 30 is converging, and continuation of this long-term trend suggests life expectancy could reach parity in 2030, resulting in considerable economic and social ramifications. The degree of parity in life expectancy is examined by comparing the historical record in four countries that show that convergence is not a new phenomenon. Contributory factors are considered including changes in male smoking habits and male employment patterns. A model is presented that considers gender differences in longevity using novel methods for analyzing life tables. It determines the ages from which death is being postponed, to the ages at which people now die, the relative speed at which these changes are taking place between genders, and how the changes observed are affecting survival prospects at different ages up to 2030. It finds that as life expectancy continues to rise there is accompanying convergence in modal age of death of between 92 and 93 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Les Mayhew & David Smith, 2014. "Gender Convergence in Human Survival and the Postponement of Death," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 194-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:18:y:2014:i:1:p:194-216
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2013.863140
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    Cited by:

    1. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    2. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    3. Mayhew, Les & Smith, David & Wright, Douglas, 2018. "The effect of longevity drift and investment volatility on income sufficiency in retirement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 201-211.
    4. Javier Pla-Porcel & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2017. "How do unisex life care annuities embedded in a pay-as-you-go retirement system affect gender redistribution?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2017-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    5. Catalina Bolancé & Montserrat Guillen, 2021. "Nonparametric Estimation of Extreme Quantiles with an Application to Longevity Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, April.

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